Teenagers aren't on the move. That's the theme of a New York Times Opinion piece by Todd Buchholz and his daughter, Victoria Buchholz (he's a former director of White House economic policy and a writer, Rush: Why You Need and Love the Rat Race; and she's at work on a book about the neuropsychology of the teenage brain), "The Go-Nowhere Generation." (This editorial has generated a great deal of internet rebuttal, specifically focusing on the lack of research. The best is by Malcolm Harris, and can be read here.)
... sometime in the past 30 years, someone has hit the brakes and Americans — particularly young Americans — have become risk-averse and sedentary. The timing is terrible. With an 8.3 percent unemployment rate and a foreclosure rate that would grab the attention of the Joads, young Americans are less inclined to pack up and move to sunnier economic climes.
The likelihood of 20-somethings moving to another state has dropped well over 40 percent since the 1980s, according to calculations based on Census Bureau data. The stuck-at-home mentality hits college-educated Americans as well as those without high school degrees. According to the Pew Research Center, the proportion of young adults living at home nearly doubled between 1980 and 2008, before the Great Recession hit. Even bicycle sales are lower now than they were in 2000. Today’s generation is literally going nowhere. This is the Occupy movement we should really be worried about.
In the most startling behavioral change among young people since James Dean and Marlon Brando started mumbling, an increasing number of teenagers are not even bothering to get their driver’s licenses. Back in the early 1980s, 80% of 18-year-olds [had]... licenses, according to a study by researchers at the University of Michigan’s Transportation Research Institute. By 2008 — even before the Great Recession — that number had dropped to 65%.
[From the Transportation Research Institute's report , issued last December, the breakdown by age group is even more interesting: About 87% of 19-year-olds in 1983 had their licenses, but 25 years later, that percentage had dropped to about 75%. Other teen driving groups have also declined: 18-year-olds fell from 80% in 1983 to 65% in 2008, 17-year-olds decreased from 69% to 50%, and 16-year-olds slipped from 46% to 31%...."It is possible that the availability of virtual contact through electronic means reduces the need for actual contact among young people," said UMTRI research professor Michael Sivak. "Furthermore, some young people feel that driving interferes with texting and other electronic communication."]
...Though it’s easy to blame the high cost of cars or gasoline, Comerica Bank’s Automobile Affordability Index shows that it takes fewer weeks of work income to buy a car today than in the early 1980s, and inflation-adjusted gasoline prices didn’t get out of line until a few years ago.
The article interested me, but I had the feeling that neither [Buchholz] nor anyone you know has relocated to another city or state by themselves as a young adult....
... a car is the first requirement. Teens working at Target (or an equivalent minimum wage generic job) would have to wait several years to afford one, especially if they aren’t living at home. Most parents are economically stressed themselves and can’t present the lucky teen with a paid-for car on the magical 16th birthday or high school graduation day.
Relocating on your own also requires a hefty amount of ready cash: At least about $2500, but probably more like $3,000 to be safe. You have to have first/last month’s rent for your new apartment (and your current landlord will delay at least a month, their billing cycle, to refund your old security deposit – if they are honest and intend to refund it fairly). You have to have enough money for food and gas while you get from here to there, and if you have the luxury of extra money for several nights in a hotel, you can expect to pay around $120/night across most of the country, even for a poor room in a small motel in the middle of nowhere.
Before you get to where you’re going, if you can’t fit what you have in a car, you have to kiss it goodbye forever or else rent a truck (more cost and more gas cost), and be prepared to get the stuff out again by yourself at your destination. That means no couch, armchair, table, bookcase, mattresses or bed and probably no vacuum cleaner. You don’t know how long it will be before you can afford to replace these things. Sleeping on the floor is painful after a few nights.
Once you get there, you may not be able to find and be approved for an apartment on the day you arrive. That means you have to park and sleep or pay for a motel for some more days. With luck you have a web-enabled device so you can access Craigslist from Starbuck’s.
With a low-paying job like Target, what are the real chances that you can get this kind of money together? Then when you get to a new place, what are the odds that you can do better than Target if you don’t have a college education or some kind of specialized experience?
Not very good odds at all. So relocation for today’s teens means they can optimistically hope that they will wind up in the same situation in a different place, maybe a place where rent is at least not as high, but separated from the family and friends who will get you to the repair shop when the car breaks down, or help you if you get sick. It’s not worth it. A teen with the resources would choose an X-box over this. I don’t think I blame them.
Posted by: Deborah | 03/21/2012 at 06:24 AM